100 Days– that’s what we’re looking at here.
November is gonna throw a wrench. But into which party’s plans?
President Trump has touted a coming red wave (covered here), but does he have his colors confused?
Typically, in the midterm after a president’s first year, the opposite party rebounds (written about here). However, the economy’s been showing off like these cats:
Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman, who tracks patterns in elections, explained it this way to The Hill:
“Everything politics has taught us in the last four decades suggests you want to be the party out of the White House in a midterm when the president’s net approval is as low as it is today. … However, those same historical lessons were crystal clear that Hillary Clinton was going to win the White House.”
A Pew poll in June really lived up to its name — P.U! – when it found that Democratic voters were more likely to express excitement about casting a November ballot.
Five points more likely, son!
Other surveys have also shown Dems more psyched to pull the lever in favor of NotRepublicans.
Check out this super cool and easy-to-read graphic:
As you can see, left-wingers have the edge. However, it’s not nearly as much of an advantage as the GOP possessed in 2010 or 2014. So that’s something, right?
For an idea of what that level of enthusiasm can do, in 2010, Republicans snaked 63 seats from the Demos.
Democratic strategist — and former chief of staff for Biden and Gore — Ron Klain thinks passion will be the way of things for the next three months for the Left, although that doesn’t guarantee votes:
“Democrats are angry, and that’s not changing in the next 100 days. … The unknown is whether that anger turns into a huge turnout.”
Republicans are hanging their hats on the fact that the country’s basically rockin’ just like this:
If you’re between the ages of 40 and 50, that’s some serious rockin’.
If not, it’s probably just a bunch of weirdos.
And some Republicans think Trump is weird for failing to heavily exploit gains in employment and the economy. Says former advisor to Mitt Romney, Ryan Williams:
“The economy and tax reform isn’t an abstract issue like Russia. … I wish the president would talk every day about the economy and tax reform instead of other things he talks about. It distracts from the success story.”
If the Dems overturn 25 seats in the House, they’ll regain control.
That could seriously stall some of Trump’s plans. Like a wall, maybe (discussed here)?
For the last 70 years, when a sitting president’s approval rating was below 50%, the other party flipped an average of 36 seats. Trump currently scores 88% among Republicans, but only 38-45% among the average citizen.
So what’s the tide that’s coming? Trump says the wave will be red; Dems call it blue. Ben Shapiro expects blue, but only in the form of a ripple.
It’s an exciting time, because who knows what’s gonna happen between now and V-Day? It’s anybody’s ballgame. So sit back with your popcorn, and let’s enjoy the thrill ride of the crazy state of politics in Trump’s America.
Thank you so much for reading! Please sound off in the Comments section below. What do you expect? What potential events could swing everything?
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